It is difficult to pinpoint any single factor and denote it as the biggest contributing factor in the decline of a candidate's electability. In the case of President Barack Obama, who has enjoyed a buffer zone in polls until recently, those factors include policies, confidence in leadership, national direction perception and even such subjective factors as simply liking him as a person.
But the buffer has disappeared as the economy has remained stagnant, the overseas wars continue to drag on, and governmental crises have painted Obama as engaged but somewhat aloof. To add more pressure to the president and his falling approval numbers, a recent Gallup poll has indicated that if an election were held today, he would be hard-pressed to beat any of the top four contenders vying for the 2012 Republican nomination.
Any of the four.
According the poll, on a national level Obama edges out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas legislator Ron Paul by a single percentage point. He outpaces Texas Gov. Rick Perry (who recently became the GOP frontrunner, at least according to a Rasmussen Reports poll) by four and Ames Straw Poll winner, Rep. Michele Bachmann by five points.
However, when those national respondents are filtered for registered voters (and it must be pointed out that, regardless of Obama's popularity on a nationwide scale, it will be the registered voters among the populace that will reelect him or deny him re-election), all four candidates fair somewhat better against the president.
In fact, Romney bests Obama by two percentage points (48 percent to 46 percent). The president ties Perry and has only a two-point lead over Paul. Although he has a four-point advantage over Bachmann, her poll numbers are within the survey's margin of error (+/- 4), which, statistically speaking, puts her in a virtual tie with the president.
When broken down by party affiliation, the candidates find their parties heavily supportive. Obama gets the most help from Democrats against Perry (86 percent) and the least against Romney and Paul (84 percent). Perry pulls the most support on the GOP side, garnering 92 percent of his party's voters if he were to win the nomination. Congressman Paul gets the least, finding only 82 percent support.
Interestingly, when pitted against the Republicans, Obama only gains single-digit crossover voting, except with Paul, where he gets 11 percent of the Republican vote. But this is canceled out by the 12 percent of Democrats who say they would support Ron Paul if he were nominated to run against Obama.
Among the highly important independent voters, Obama seems to do best against Bachmann, besting her numbers by six percentage points (48 percent to 42 percent). The other three Republicans fare better than the President, with Romney and Paul doing best (47 and 46 percent to 44 and 43 percent, respectively) and Perry (46 percent to 44 percent) doing nearly as well.
But what do the numbers mean? They could portend a long and laborious campaign for President Obama, given the bleak economy and stagnant unemployment rate (currently at 9.1 percent nationally). A slight shift in any of the categories could send millions of votes in a particular direction. The numbers could also mean next to nothing.
In August 1999, George W. Bush had a 13-point advantage over Vice President Al Gore and the election came down to a Supreme Court decision. In August 1995, Sen. Bob Dole enjoyed a two-point lead over incumbent President Bill Clinton but ultimately lost the election by eight percentage points.
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